Weekly Bitcoin Analysis
It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. It’s been an interesting week so far, so we’ll see how accurate I can be. I also do a weekly video on Saturday’s over on my YouTube channel, where you can get my end of week overview of a few of the larger cryptos.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advice.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Taking a look at the weekly chart, we can see that it has very much been a down week so far, but looking closer it’s not as bad as it seems at first look. First, the volume is low relative to some of the previous down weeks. We also seem to have a smaller price range on this week even compared to last week, and the ATR is continuing it’s downward trend.
All of these indicators seem to want to give a pretty good signal that the volatility is coming out of the market and things are starting to cool off before things start moving again. Unless we see some significant sell off volume in the next few days, I think this weekly candle is going to be nice.
Daily Chart Analysis
As should be obvious, my favorite chart to analyze is the daily one. I find it gives me the best indication of what the market is doing now, while still giving just enough of a macro overview. From here, it looks like the price is very much climbing up the slanted line in my upward wedge. Well, basically, it’s presently pressing down through the line, so we’ll see how the next day or two goes, if we maintain the wedge or not.
Realistically I see the wedge breaking and the price falling down to the $30,000 range and we see some sideways action, but more on that in my prediction section. Our lines to watch are the current price around $34,000 for the wedge, with the resistance line at $35,000. If we can break and maintain $35,000, our next target would be to take the $36.500 price point.
On the downward side, our next support line is at $33,000, with a bottom out below that of $30,000. It’s starting to seem less likely that we see any significant price movements below that bottom out price, but it is still possible if we see significant downward motions return.
Hourly Chart Analysis
Looking at things from the hourly perspective, we can see that after we dropped below the $35,000 price point a few days ago, we have retested it twice and not managed to push up past it again, showing that this line did indeed flip to a resistance line after we fell below it.
From a local support line, this does appear to be along the slanted line of the wedge, with just some slight dips and recoveries below that point. The hourly chart is more or less just confirming what we see on the longer term charts, and does not really do much in the way of changing the forecasts. The price appears to be consolidating, and the volatility is starting to fall off in the market, with lower trading volumes showing through.
Looking at the Bitcoin Dominance chart, we can see that the dominance factor is actually starting to trend back down in a not insignificant amount. This can also be seen with some of the alt coins starting to recover a little quicker than Bitcoin is pulling off.
It’s nice to see that some of the market cap is starting to flow back out of Bitcoin, as it’s another good sign that the market is starting to feel healthy and confident enough to take some bigger risks by throwing money behind other cryptos. Let’s hope this trend continues and we start pushing the dominance level even lower.
I still think that it’s a little early for Bitcoin to start pumping up a major recovery, and we are actually likely to see a bit more of the sideways price action. I think the price will continue up along the wedge I have drawn for a few more days, but will ultimately drop below that and start trending back towards the $30,000 mark.
I expect that for much of the next month, the price action is going to be between that lower $30,000 point, with the upper range sticking to the $36.500 resistance line that seems to have become the line to beat.
My guess is that we see this kind of sideways action going on until about the end of July, maybe into early August, where we will finally start to see Bitcoin taking those resistance lines in the $40,000 range, and once that starts happening, I expect it will be short order from there, back to full recovery, but I do believe we are in for a little bit of a flat summer while the bears and bulls wrestle within the box.
Socials And Other Links
I also post a weekly price update video every Saturday over on my YouTube channel, where I will be discussing the weekly price action for some of the major cryptos. You can also sign up for my newsletter which I send out every Friday with news and whatnot from the crypto space, delivered right to your inbox!
You can also find links to resources such as research and news sites over at this link.
Want some more content right now? Check out some of my previous posts:
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Originally Posted On My Website: https://ninjawingnut.xyz/2021/07/07/weekly-btc-3/