Weekly Bitcoin Analysis
It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. The week started with a nice little pump, followed by some sideways action, but things are still looking pretty good.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advice.
Price Chart
Looking at the daily price chart, we can see that we’ve had a pretty decent week. We hit a local bottom a few days ago on the 19th, getting down to just below $44,000. We then saw we had a nice little jump of well over 10% to the high we reached on the 23rd, where we touched just above the $50,000 mark.
That price gave us a fair bit of resistance, and we came back down and retested for support around $48,000 and it seems we have found the support we needed there, at least as far as we can see from today. We were always going to have some pushback from where we were, and retracing back only about 7% is actually pretty good.
The market seems to be having just a bit of a cooldown period, making small gains and then moving sideways a bit, but this is to be expected when you consider we moved about 70% upwards in only 35 days once we came up off the $30,000 line back on July 21st.
The Average True Range (ATR) is also still relatively low, meaning the volatility levels are staying under control, and the moves are all seemingly measured and not just a runaway move that is likely to reverse suddenly and crash hard. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), is also managing to stay high, and only stepping up over 75 into the over-bought territory occasionally and not for long.
Volumes are also staying fairly consistent, we aren’t seeing any major players dropping a huge amount onto the market. The other side of that is we also are not seeing any massive amounts being taken off the board from the market either, but as they say, this is a marathon, not a sprint, so we don’t need to see massive moves, and it’s better for the mid-term health for it to stay at a reasonable pace.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance has been mostly flat this week, so we aren’t seeing the alts either pumping or dumping too far off the centerline of what Bitcoin has been doing, which is not necessarily a bad thing. I know there is more money to be made in an alt season, but after the summer we just had, a little stability right now, while the market gets it’s legs back under it, is not a bad thing.
During the early, big push of this current push over the last 35 days, we say the dominance factor drop out 11%, and it really only slowed down recently as the market has been taking it’s breather, so there is a non insignificant chance that we see this trend continue during the next push upwards.
My Prediction
Now for the hard part of this weekly analysis, trying to guess at what I think the next week of price action is actually going to do. I feel pretty confident in thinking that we won’t see the price dump off, I’m putting my current floor around the $49,000 line where we are currently getting support. We may see a dip slightly below that, but I don’t really see that being the case.
What I expect is that this week is going to look a lot like the last week did. We’ll see a move sometime during the week that pushes us up another good 5–10%, followed by another little retracement and sideways motion. We might even see that same pattern a couple of times over the next few weeks, before we see the next really big rally like we saw leading up to these last few “staircase” pumps we’ve seen in the last few upward moves.
My next target price that I am looking for us to beat is sitting at $56,000 and from there we will be within striking distance of getting back up to the All Time High and beyond.
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