Weekly Bitcoin Analysis
It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. It’s been a mostly sideways week, but I think that is quite alright.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advice.
Taking a look at the daily chart, we can see that our upward trajectory has stalled out and we are trading sideways, but really, this should not be a shocking turn of events. After a pretty beefy run up the last few weeks, the market needing a little bit of time to cool off and catch it’s breath was always going to happen.
What’s nice is the fact that the range we are trading in is about $44,500-$48,000. We’ve broken out of the box that we were stuck in from the crash back in May, until the current run started back on 21 July. This is a very good sign, and the fact that we are retesting the $46,500 support line and finding the support, is a very good sign.
A few days ago also saw the 50 day EMA cross back through the 200 day line, giving us a nice golden cross sign, but like the death cross we saw as the market was down, the golden cross is a lagged indicator, and doesn’t always mean the market is going to pop off, it’s a response to the surge in price we saw in the last few weeks, but none the less, it’s very nice to see the trend lines starting to line back up into an uptrend scenario.
The Average True Range (ATR) is starting to pick itself up off the bottom, showing a little bit of volatility coming back into the market, which is good as long as the volatility continues to play to the upside and not the down. A little volatility never hurt anyone, and having some bigger price moves is always good.
The Relative Strength Index has also moved out of the overbought territory over 75, and is nicely in the center of the range, which would be expected with the momentum shift to sideways prices we have seen the last week or so. Let’s just keep it above the centerline.
Overall, I think that having a sideways week at this point is quite alright, let the market catch it’s breath, let everyone get their analysis done and start deciding it’s time to start thinking about increasing their Bitcoin positions.
Bitcoin Dominance is also on the drop, which means some more money is flooding out into the altcoins, which can very much be seen across all the major cryptos, as they make some pretty good gains. It almost seems like the market wants to fire up another alt-season to run along with the return to the bull market, and if the current trends continue, we could be in for a very good final part of the year.
I am guessing we will continue to see the sideways price movements for the next couple of days, maybe through the weekend, but I don’t expect it to last all the much longer.
After we manage to break through and take the $48,000 price target, I would imagine the next point that we see a price reversal and cool down will be around the $56,000 line, and I would expect that we will hit that before the month is over. It’s not a massive jump from where we are, and I foresee us breaking out of our current box fairly quickly.
If we do happen to break to the downside, which I very much doubt is going to happen, I would put a support line at $41,000 that I would be very surprised if we managed to fall under. Heck, I’ll be surprised if we fall even to it.
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